The Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) risk menu has almost all of the risk functionality and options for the entire Pertmaster product. Almost all other menus are related to planning, scheduling, and options. The Primavera Risk tool was a scheduling tool long before it was a Monte Carlo simulation product. If a user has a perfectly clean schedule, then they might not have to leave the risk menu until they need to run reports and scenarios.
In our risk analysis process overview we consider the risk analysis options and running the risk analysis the 6th out of 7 steps. Users will use the options often and an entire section of the training course is dedicated to the risk analysis options. Every time an analysis is run, the risk analyst will use the Run Risk Analysis option via the menu or the toolbar icon.
In our risk analysis process overview, we consider the risk analysis options and running the risk analysis the 5th out of 7 steps. The register options launches a full qualitative and quantitative risk register. Qualitative risk relates to categorizing and tracking risk. Quantitative risk registers relate to turning risk events into probabilistic schedule elements and integrating them into a cost estimate or into schedule logic. Risk events for simulations can be thought of as activities that may or may not occur. When those risk events do occur, they will link to the schedule tasks and cause a delay.
All of the “quick risk” items we consider uncertainty loading. This is the 4th step in our 7 step process. The uncertainty loading allows users to put various distributions or three-point estimates on activity durations. While risk events are basically activities that may or may not occur, the uncertainty is not driven by the probability of occurrence. Uncertainty or productivity is put on items that will occur, however may have a slightly variable duration.
Much of the risk theory and Primavera Risk modules will be dedicated to the theory and thought behind separating risk events from uncertainty for a more accurate and traceable model. The duration quick risk serves to put a blanket of uncertainty over all activities (or selected tasks) on a percentage basis. At a bid level a team may document that the estimates are plus or minus 15%. A duration quick risk could be applied to the entire schedule that sets the three-point estimates between the -15% and +15% ranges.
While the templated quick risk is usually not enough information to provide an accurate answer or provide traceability to sell an answer, it is a fantastic tool for testing the quality and flow of the network logic. Although it is widely used in industry for the final answer, we find it impossible to sell that every activity in the schedule has the exact same level of uncertainty. We will position the duration quick risk as a schedule maturity tool instead of a risk analysis input.
Risk events go in a risk register. We consider the templated quick risk an uncertainty (or productivity) register. Users are able to setup groupings to load the three-point estimates. It might be hard to sell that every construction activity in a project plan has the same level of uncertainty, however it is much more logical to setup a grouping by discipline and say that we separated each discipline and we are loading the minimum, most likely, and maximum by group due the historical data we have for productivity across our disciplines. The productivity or uncertainty factor will be applied for all tasks within the discipline. Many strategies exist for creating the groups, however the thought is to group activities in the most logical fashion for the project team without them needing to know the nuts and bolts of the risk tool.
The templated quick risk is a reusable register that combines the functionality of a filter with the percentage-based risk range loading capability of the quick risk.
The resource quick risk functions very similar to the duration quick risk outlined above. Three-point estimates are created for all or selected resources and applied to the number of remaining units. Risk analysis always focuses on remaining amounts whether it is duration or units. In this section users are able to put variability on the cost of materials, number or man hours, or put other three-point estimates on the number of units. The variability in the units can change the cost as the units are then multiplied by the rate.
This feature will allow users to turn fixed lags into a percentage-based lag which is calculated based on the uncertainty on activities. A reduction or increase in the activity duration during simulation will then increase or reduce the duration of the succeeding lag.
Primavera Risk does have the ability to handle weather modeling via applying the weather conditions to a calendar. For example the construction calendar can have a hurricane season weather condition applied to it. The weather modeling functionality can also be applied to model things such as political unrest, labor stoppages, etc.
Risk factors allows users to set different levels of uncertainty based on multiple factors on one activity. Analysts can set uncertainty percentages for items such as weather, complexity, technology, subcontractor, etc.
Correlation is a statistically critical part of a risk analysis on large project schedules. Correlation can help overcome issues such as the impact of the central limit theorem and merge bias. This correlation menu allows users to set uncertainty correlation groupings manually. The templated quick risk will allow users to set correlations by grouping as well. Training modules in the Primavera Risk and Risk Theory sections will be dedicated to the importance of correlation.
The task sensitivity settings can also be set from within the tornado chart. These settings affect the calculations used to generate the tornado chart metrics and rankings such as Spearman’s rank correlation versus Pearson’s product moment.
The Pertmaster risk percentiles menu can also be loaded via the risk analysis options. The feature allows users to create user-defined fields based on the Monte Carlo simulations. For example, a user could create a column for probability 50% start and finish dates to create an overlay on the Gantt chart.
The import and export risk items allow users to push data to and from .csv files for editing in Microsoft Excel. All risk data loaded in Primavera Risk will be sent to Excel and can be edited and re-imported.
The risk summary function allows users to see all of the loaded risk data and search through different tabs in a pop-up. It probably will not be used a great deal by the typical user.
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