The fourth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to load uncertainty or productivity ranges on the network activities. The templated quick risk, or uncertainty register, will allow a risk analyst to load risk from a summary level while still utilizing the full logic from a detailed schedule of any size. Project managers can get very good results with this method by providing accuracy and traceability. Often the schedule maturity is more challenging than the risk analysis.
Video Walkthrough of the Templated Quick Risk in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 14 min: 21 sec)
What is the Theory and Strategy
The templated quick risk crosses the duration quick risk strategy with filters. The duration ranges are strategically applied to filtered groupings instead of to all activities. The filters are saved and the duration ranges can be quickly updated and managed as the project progresses. The templated quick risk can demonstrate that that a risk analyst has done more than hurriedly thrown risk on every activity just to generate a random chart. This strategy is justifiable if done well and much less time consuming than manually loading the risk values on each activity.
What Problems Does it Solve
- The templated quick risk is much quicker than manual risk loading.
- The inputs have increased traceability as there a manageable and comprehend-able amount of groupings.
- The templates are easy to update and manage for recurring reporting cycles.
- Filters can take into account schedule changes.
- The groupings may help with activity correlation instead of trying to correlate activities manually.
- Grouping activities helps all team members give input without a heavy statistics background.
Templated Quick Risk Steps
- Follow the menu path Risk | Templated Quick Risk.
- The risk analyst selects a value in the Field column. The field column lists all activity codes, user-defined fields, and has a selection to create an advanced filter.
- The Value column will allow user to select or input data to filter for based on the field that was chosen. If advanced filter was chosen in the field column, then the user can select an existing filter or create a new filter.
- The Tasks field will automatically populate with the number of activities found based on the filter.
- The Distribution field allows the project manager to select an uncertainty distribution (triangle, beta pert, etc) to apply to the activity grouping.
- The risk analyst will type in the minimum, most likely, and maximum percentages. These percentages will be applied to all normal activities that have remaining duration in the activity grouping.
- The correlation value can be input between 0 and 100. This will apply a the correlation coefficient to the entire grouping of activities.
What is the Correlation Field
- The field allows a scheduler to create activity groupings that have similar behavior.
- It may not make sense to correlate activities when they are not truly related.
- Correlation may overcome the undesired cancellation effect of the central limit theorem in certain situations.
- Correlation may stop critical path switching in groups that have been placed in parallel for representation of work but not the sequenced accurately due to lack of scope or other issues.
- Example correlation: A project manager could correlate a grouping of activities for a construction crew as their productivity may extrapolate to all activities in their scope of work. If they are performing well, then it will apply to all of their activities in an iteration.
Advanced Fliter Steps
- Set the Field column to Advanced Filter.
- Set the Value column to NEW FILTER, EDIT FILTER, or DELETE FILTER.
- If a filter has been previously setup, then select the filter from the drop-down box.
- Filters are created in the templated quick risk exactly like the filters that can be made via the filter option in the menu bar.
Examples and Hints
- Do not setup groups that overwrite other groupings.
- Make the groupings based on reusable info such as activity codes, resource codes, or WBS.
- Relate the risk groupings with the audience. If the project team tracks productivity based on discipline or subcontractor, then it would make sense to create risk groupings based on how the team already analyzes the project.
- The values must be input as percentages, however some audiences think better based on duration. Sometimes converting durations to percentages helps the audience.
- Get an answer that represents reality as quickly as possible. Michelangelo took years to paint the Sistine Chapel. Bob Ross painted “Happy Clouds” in less than an hour on television while stoned. Michelangelo did better work, however you don’t have years to analyze risk. You must paint a good picture of reality as quickly as possible.