Oracle | Primavera Risk: Pertmaster Running Simulations

The sixth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is running the analysis.  This step is tougher on the computer than it is on a project manager.  This section will outline the steps involved in running the Monte Carlo simulations.

Video Walkthrough of Running the Monte Carlo Analysis in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 4 min: 34 sec)

Running the Risk Analysis 

  • Follow the menu path Risk | Run Risk Analysis (F10).
  • Set the number of iterations.  Many risk analysts use 1000 as a default, however it is up to the project manager’s preference.  It is important to make certain that the graph has reached convergence after the simulations have been run.
  • Check “Show step through options.”
  • The “Options” button will bring the risk analyst to the risk analysis options screen.  This is not needed if the options have been previously set.
  • Set which chart will be displayed after analysis via the drop-down box options.  The chart does not matter as the risk analyst can display any chart after analysis.
  • Click “Analyze” to show the step through options screen.
  • The “step” option will run one full simulation.
  • The “go” button will run simulation repeatedly while repainting the screen.  The project manager or scheduler can watch the analysis run.
  • The “complete” option is the fastest method to run a risk analysis.  Once the complete button has been clicked the user cannot use the “go” and “step options.  Cancel will be the only option once the risk analyst has clicked “complete.”

If the project team decides to watch the analysis run, then they may be able to gather some interesting data to assist the project manager, scheduler, or risk analyst during the simulations:

  • The simulation will highlight how often and where the critical path is changing.
  • Filters can be applied to view how predecessor chains are rippling or disconnecting in the project.
  • Logic views can also be shown to trace for missing or faulty links.
  • The scheduler can judge if the milestone or activity movement seems correct and appropriate to find flaws in the logic.