The fourth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to load uncertainty or productivity ranges on the network activities. Loading three-point estimates (minimum, likely, and maximum) across an entire project can be very useful for testing the schedule logic and for very high-level project analysis. This strategy is not usually justifiable to generate an in-depth and accurate Monte Carlo analysis.
Video Walkthrough of the Duration Quick Risk in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 5 min: 31 sec)
Duration Quick Risk Overview
The duration quick risk will allow a scheduler or risk analyst to load three-point estimates on a large amount of activities at once. In most industries a large majority of projects are analyzed by simply applying the same spread of uncertainty across all activities in the project. This strategy is very difficult to justify as it show that very little thought was put into the inputs and it was assumed that every activity in the entire project has the exact same level of uncertainty. The answer will come out quickly but there is very little value outside of testing the activity logic network.
Quick Risk Options and Steps
- The duration quick risk can be opened by following the menu path Risk Menu | Duration Quick Risk.
- Choose whether to apply the uncertainty ranges to all tasks, filtered tasks, or only the selected tasks.
- Select whether to overwrite any existing three-point estimates by checking or un-checking the overwrite box.
- Select the distribution type via the drop-down box. Four of the most common distribution types are listed. Other distribution types can be added manually.
- Select the minimum, most likely, and maximum percentages. The percentage will be applied to all activities with a remaining duration. If the percentages are 80%, 100%, and 110%, then a 10 day activity will have a risk spread of 8, 10, and 11 days.