Monte Carlo Analysis: Pertmaster Quantitative Risk Register Section

The fifth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to track, quantify, and link risk events to the project schedule for the Monte Carlo analysis.  The  quantitative risk register tab is where a risk analyst will turn risk events into probabilistic schedule activities for the Monte Carlo cost or schedule simulations.

Video Walkthrough of the Quantitative Risk Register in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 11 min: 37 sec)

Quantative Risk Register Section Overview

The Quantitative risk register tab is located directly under the menu bar.  After clicking the Quantitative tab, the pre-mitigated and post-mitigated sub-tabs will appear below it.  The third layer of tabs for the Risk View and Task View will appear below the pre-mitigated and post-mitigated tabs.

Risk View Tab

  • The list of risks are located in the left pane.
  • The left panel contains the risk ID, risk title, threat or opportunity (T/O), whether the risk is quantified, probability, and the task ID that is the risk affects.
  • The right panel contains all activities in the project plan.  The project manager can filter tasks, sort activities, and check mark the tasks a risk links to.

Task View Tab

  • The left panel contains all schedule activities.
  • The right panel contains all risk events added into the risk model.
  • Clicking an activity will show all risks that have been linked to that task.
  • This tab is important because it allows a risk analyst to link the risk events in series or parallel when two or more risks affect one activity.

Bottom Pane for Risk Impacts

  •  The bottom panel lists the quantified impacts a risk has on a task and the task affected.  The info is similar to an activity, such as duration and cost.
  • Risk event existence and impact can be correlated.  This will be covered in detail in another module.

Risk Event Links to Activities

  • Risk events link to an activity with a finish to start link.
  • Risk events link in parallel by default.
  • Risk can stack or be put in series (task view tab).

Overview of Risk Event Correlation (Risk View Tab)

  • If risk ranges are correlated, then they will hit the same portion of the risk triangle just like a correlated activity.  The check box will set the correlation coefficient to 100%.
  • A risk can be tied to more than one activity.  If the event existence is correlated, then if a risk event occurs on one activity, then it will happen to the other activities as well.  For example, if a hurricane risk event is tied to the different tasks in the schedule, then it can occur in all places when the hurricane risk event fires.  A general risk such as a procurement delay may not have correlated existence because one vendor can deliver on time while another vendor has a delay.