Monte Carlo Analysis: Pertmaster Quantitative Risk Register Integration with Schedule

The fifth step of a typical Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) Monte Carlo analysis is to track, quantify, and link risk events to the project schedule for the Monte Carlo analysis.  The Pertmaster methodology revolves around separating uncertainty & productivity from risk events for a more accurate and traceable risk model.  The Primavera Risk software will basically treat risk events as probabilistic activities that have logical ties to the schedule like any other task.

Video Walkthrough of Risk Event Integration in Oracle | Primavera Risk (Pertmaster) (Duration: 9 min: 37 sec)

Risk Integration Overview

Once the risks have been linked to the schedule in the risk register, the user will follow the path Tools | Build Impacted Risk Plan.  A wizard will launch that begins the process of converting risk events into probabilistic activities.

Steps to Building an Impacted Risk Plan

  • Follow the menu path Tools | Build Impacted Risk Plan.
  • Check pre-mitigated, post-mitigated, or both check boxes.  If no mitigated scenario has been created, then the pre-mitigated scenario will be the only impacted risk plan needed.
  • Select the risk events to integrate into the risk model.  The risk analyst will often check mark all risks to run a scenario for all documented risks.
  • Risks can only be modeled if they have been have a status of open or proposed in the qualitative risk register.  If risks have been entered directly into the quantitative side of the risk register, then the status will always default to proposed.
  • The “Expand Tasks to Show Risks” option in bottom-left controls whether how the Gantt chart view will initially show the newly created risk summary tasks.  The risk summary tasks can be expanded or collapsed manually after integration making this option unimportant.
  • Click the Build button.

Gantt Chart View after Integrating Risk Events

  • The Window menu bar option will list all open Primavera Risk plans.  The scheduler can switch to any open play by clicking on the project title.
  • Risk events will appear in the Gantt chart like activities with the main difference being a probability of occurrence less than 100% has been populated.
  • Risk events can be quickly spotted as they will come in as highlighted red lines.

Risk Event Logic

  • Risk Event logic may look odd to a project manager or scheduler. 
  • The risk event is linked finish-start with the original or impacted activity as the predecessor. 
  • The original predecessor and successor links are moved to a risk summary bar.
  • The linking method may create a small problem for viewing the drivers and critical path because the original activity and the risk event are not technically seen as predecessors.
  • Only the risk summary bar will show up on the tornado chart unless some manual linking is done.